Welcome to ScullyTotals.com which provides NFL wager recommendations that consistently beat Vegas odds. The predictions focus on total game points (aka totals) and stem from a proprietary computer program that downloads weekly team statistics, runs multivariate regressions, and outputs recommendations where forecasted points differ greatly from the sportsbooks’.
THE MODEL: ScullyTotals is based on a statistical model that incorporates 42 variables for each weekly NFL game. The algorithm relies on five years of data from 2004 through 2008 to then compare today’s matchups versus historical trends. Emphasis is placed on rushing efficiency, passing efficiency, QB rating, average points, first down proficiency, and turnovers.
With each forecast, several filters are applied to identify the most favorable outcomes that make money. ScullyTotals does this by only outputting betting advice where “value” exists with oddsmaker lines. In other words, if Vegas believes the total predicted point is 45 yet the algorithm says 55 then there is a significant difference and the computer program will make a bet recommendation. Using this systematic approach to NFL gambling, ScullyTotals has been profitable every year since its launch in 2010.